نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی-پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانش آموخته دکتری مدیریت تکنولوژی، گروه مدیریت تکنولوژی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران( نویسنده اول)
2 استاد گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
3 استاد مجتمع دانشگاهی مدیریت و مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران.
چکیده
به طور بنیادی، جابجایی توسط سه جزء سیستم از قبیل: خودرو، راننده و زیرساخت حمل و نقل تضمین می شود. با گذشت زمان، خودروها و زیرساخت از طریق بهبود فناورانه، پیشرفت چشمگیری داشته اند. اما تنها جزء ثابت این سیستم که به علت محدویت های انسانی در رانندگی هنوز پرخطر است، انسان می باشد. راه حل پیشنهادی دانشمندان برای حل این جزء نیز استفاده از خودروهای خودران یا بدون راننده است. لذا هدف از این تحقیق، تجزیه و تحلیل اثرات متقابل بازیگران بر عوامل موثر خودروی خودران می باشد تا با تمرکز بر آنها بتوان مقدمات مناسب این فناوی فراهم گردد. با توجه به پارادایم مسئله، متدولوژی از نوع کیفی، و روش انجام آن آینده نگاری، و جامعه پژوهش، متخصصین صنایع مرتبط، نمونه نیز بصورت خبرگان قضاوتی غیر تصادفی، ابزار جمع آوری داده ها مصاحبه و مستندات پیشین ادبیات بود. از نرم افزار مکتور برای تجزیه و تحلیل استفاده گردید. نتایج تحقیق این بود که بازیگرانی مانند وزارت ارتباطات و فناوری اطلاعات، و وزارت راه و شهرسازی با توجه به موقعیت اشان در نمودار، جزء متغیرهای بازتاب و کلیدی می باشند. این متغیرها دارای اثر گذاری بالا بر روی سیستم و اثر پذیری بالا از سیستم می باشند. با توجه به نتایج، از آنجاییکه خودروی خودران یک فناوری است که اثرات اجتماعی، فرهنگی و فناورانه بر آینده خواهد داشت، با خوشه بندی ایجاد شده می توان سیاستگذاری مناسب در اجرایی نمودن این فناوری داشت.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Cross Impact Balance Analysis of Driverless Car's Actors by Foresight Method
نویسندگان [English]
- Hamid Hanifi 1
- Adel Azar 2
- Manouchehr Manteghi 3
1 Department of Technology Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 University of Industrial Management and Engineering Complex, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran.
چکیده [English]
Movement is basically guaranteed by three components of the system, such as the vehicle, the driver, and the transportation infrastructure. Over time, vehicles and infrastructure have made significant progress through technological improvements. But the only constant component of this system, which is still dangerous due to human limitations in driving is human. The proposed human solution to solve this component is the use of autonomous vehicle or driverless car. Therefore, the purpose of this study is the cross influence analysis of actors on the effective factors of autonomous vehicle or driverless car technologies so that by focusing on them, appropriate arrangements can be made for this technology. According to the problem paradigm, the methodology is qualitative, and the method of doing it is foresight, and the research population is experts in related industries. MACTOR software was used for analysis. The results of the research showed that actors such as the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, according to their position in the diagram, are part of the reflection and key variables. These variables have a high influence on the system and high dependence of the system. According to the results, since the driverless car is a technology that will have social, cultural and technological effects on the future, with the created clustering, it is possible to have an appropriate policy in implementing this technology.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Autonomous Vehicle Technology
- Technology Foresight
- Driverless Car
- Cross Impact Balance Analysis
- MACTOR
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