Prediction of the future market share of Iranian passenger railway transport companies using the Markov chain model with the green innovation capability assessment approach

Sharifimehr, Omid; Abbaspour Esfeden, Ghanbar; Manteghi, Manoochehr; Modiri, Mahmoud

doi:10.22034/jtd.2025.2052113.1989

Prediction of the future market share of Iranian passenger railway transport companies using the Markov chain model with the green innovation capability assessment approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

omid sharifimehr ¹

Ghanbar Abbaspour Esfeden ²

Manoochehr Manteghi ³

Mahmoud Modiri ²

¹ Department of Technology Management, S T. C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

² Department of Industrial Management, S T. C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

³ Industrial Management and Engineering University Complex, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/jtd.2025.2052113.1989

Abstract

Considering the important role of the transportation system in sustainable urban development, adopting appropriate policies in the urban transportation sector and developing sustainable transportation as one of the main areas of urban growth is considered. Innovation capabilities are an important part of the value of companies. Innovative activities require companies to be able to identify and evaluate these capabilities and to forecast the future market share to formulate their strategies.
The statistical population of this research includes the senior managers of the Railway Company and rail passenger companies of the country. In this research, after examining the current market share of seven passenger companies by exploiting the comprehensive model for evaluating the innovation capability of rail passenger companies in Iran, The forecast of the market share of the companies was discussed. Using the Markov chain model, after identifying the situation, the transfer matrix was determined, and in the next step, the future market share of each company was calculated.
According to the results of Raja Company, it will lose nearly 20% of its market share, and Mehtab Sir Jam and Pars Larim companies have a downward growth, and Rail Trabar Saba, Nur al Reza, Jopar and Rail Pardaz Noafarin companies have an upward growth in gaining market share.

Keywords

Innovation

innovation capability assessment

Markov chain

sustainable development

green transportation

Subjects