Predict the price of domestically produced cars in the market based on the dynamic system model

Jafari, Azizolah; Ghavidast, Neda; Bagheri, Mohsen

doi:10.22034/jtd.2022.253372

Predict the price of domestically produced cars in the market based on the dynamic system model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Azizolah Jafari ¹

Neda Ghavidast ²

Mohsen Bagheri ²

¹ Associate Professor,department of industrial engineering ,university of science and culture ,tehran,Iran

² PHD,Candidate,Department of Industrial Engnieering,University of science and culture,Tehran,Iran

https://doi.org/10.22034/jtd.2022.253372

Abstract

The most basic indicator of economic and social development in many developed and developed countries is the automotive industry of that country . ntil 2009, Iran was one of the top 18 automakers in the world and one of the largest automakers in the Middle East. In this research, the price of domestically produced cars in the market is predicted based on the dynamic system model. The statistical population is intended for collecting analytical data of 512 experts and specialists in this field, which according to Cochran's method, 412 people are considered as a statistical sample. The data obtained in the questionnaire were first extracted using the AHP method to extract the effect coefficients of the variables. Then, based on the dynamic system method, model design and simulation were performed in Wensim software. Given the current situation, if it is stable, the growth of car prices is low for 34 months, but after 34 months, a very significant growth can be due to the high impact of factors affecting car prices relative to reducing factors. Is the price of the car.

Keywords

Prediction

car price

domestic production

dynamic system model

20.1001.1.26765403.1401.20.50.2.4

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